Skip Navigation Links

The State of Natural and Cultural Resources in the Colorado River Ecosystem:

JUNE 30, 1999 DRAFT REPORT
Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center
Flagstaff, AZ 86001
Updated: 30 June 1999

Table of Contents

Introduction and Administration

Top of Page

INTRODUCTION

Administrative Overview

The Colorado River ecosystem affected by Glen Canyon Dam is the subject of federally authorized monitoring and research to improve ecosystem management in Lake Powell, lower Glen Canyon and throughout Grand Canyon. These scientific studies are coordinated by the Department of the Interior's Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) office in Flagstaff, Arizona, under direction from the Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG). The AMWG is a Federal Advisory Committee consisting of a diverse group of stakeholders, including: Department of Interior agencies (Bureau of Indian Affairs, Bureau of Reclamation, Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service), Western Area Power Administration, Colorado River basin states, Native American tribes, Colorado River Energy Development Association, and environmental organizations. The AMWG meets semiannually to discuss dam management, review the progress of the GCMRC's scientific activities, develop plans for future activities, and provide recommendations to the Secretary of the Interior on Glen Canyon Dam operations. The AMWG is advised by its representatives on the Technical Work Group (TWG).

The wide array of physical, biological and cultural resources and processes of the Colorado River ecosystem are highly dynamic, and some resources respond dramatically to different flow regimes. Effectively managed flow regimes may enhance some resources and ecological processes in this river ecosystem, and a science-based adaptive management process may ensure effective management that optimizes stakeholder concerns while affording appropriate protection of the river ecosystem. Colorado River ecosystem stakeholders have requested from GCMRC an annual scientific evaluation of the state of the ecosystem, and such a report fulfills part of the requirements of the 1992 Grand Canyon Protection Act, as well as some requirements of the 1995 Glen Canyon Dam Environmental Impact Statement (GCD-EIS) and the 1996 Record of Decision (ROD). This evaluation, combined with information on predictions of future reservoir storage and weather, can be used to discuss potential flow regimes to protect and/or enhance development of the Colorado River ecosystem.

This June 1999 State of the Colorado River Ecosystem report provides information on current physical, aquatic biological, terrestrial biological, cultural and socioenconomic resource conditions over time, and especially related to 1996-1999 flows, including the March/April 1996 beach habitat building flow (BHBF), the November 1997 31,000 cfs habitat maintenance flow (HMF), and subsequent flows in 1998 and 1999.

Administrative History of the Colorado River

(Updated from Stevens and Wegner 1995)

1902
Reclamation Act creates the Bureau of Reclamation.
1904
Grand Canyon declared a National Game Reserve (T. Roosevelt).
1916
National Park Service Organic Act.
1919
Grand Canyon declared a national park, stipulating "reclamation projects" within park boundaries.
1922
The Colorado River Compact allocates the river's water between the upper (Wyoming, Colorado, Utah and New Mexico) and lower (Arizona, Nevada and California) basins.
1920-25
U.S. Geological Survey of potential dam sites.
1945
The Mexican Treaty guarantees 1.5 million acre feet of water to Mexico.
1948
The Upper Basin Compact allocates Colorado River water between the upper basin states.
1956
The Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) Act is passed, authorizing construction of upper basin dams.
1957-63
Glen Canyon Dam construction, power production starts in 1964.
1967
Humpback chub and Colorado pikeminnow listed as endangered.
1973
The National Environmental Policy Act was passed.
1976
The NPS coordinates the first ecological inventory of the Grand Canyon (Carothers and Aitchison 1976), and the first sociological studies.
1976
Last Colorado Pikeminnow caught in Grand Canyon at Havasu Creek.
1978
FWS Jeopardy Opinion on the operation of Glen Canyon Dam.
1980
Lake Powell fills for the first time; bonytail chub listed as endangered.
1981-82
Rewind of Glen Canyon Dam turbines, Bureau of Reclamation states that there will be no significant effect on downstream river ecosystem.
1983
Secretary of the Interior James Watt orders Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Environmental Studies (GCES) Program to study dam impacts; post-dam record 2,724 m3/s flow is released.
1983-86
Forty studies of dam effects conducted during exceptionally high inflow and corresponding downstream releases.
1987
National Academy of Sciences (NAS) review of GCES Phase I (NAS 1987).
1988
Cooperating agencies conclude that GCES Phase I (Bureau of Reclamation 1988) showed: (1) dam affects river ecosystem, but (2) more data needed on low and fluctuating flows to determine how to best manage the system.
1989
Secretary of the Interior Manuel Lujan orders an ex post facto EIS on dam operations; initiation of GCES Phase II to support EIS preparation.
1990-91
Test flows were used to determine effects of individual flow regimes (Patten 1991).
1991
Interim flows (low hourly change in flow) implemented on 1 August to protect river resources while EIS is prepared; interim flows monitoring implemented by Reclamation on 1 August and formalized in November 1991 Santa Fe "State of Knowledge" symposium (NAS 1991); razorback sucker listed as endangered.
1992
NAS "Delphi Process" symposium in Irvine, CA to plan long-term monitoring for the Colorado River corridor. Passage of the Grand Canyon Protection Act provides for a speedy resolution of the EIS and balancing environmental protection with economic benefits.
1994
FWS Biological Opinion concludes that Glen Canyon Dam still jeopardizes native fish.
1995
Final EIS submitted to Secretary of the Interior Bruce Babbitt, calling for
  1. low flow fluctuations to preserve tributary derived bed sand,
  2. planned flooding to restore higher elevation sand bars,
  3. adaptive management based on
  4. long-term monitoring and cooperative, interagency discussion.
1996
A Beach Habitat Building Flow (BHBF, experimental flood) was conducted from Glen Canyon Dam from 26 March-2 April. The FWS Biological Opinion on the planned flood restricted take of Kanab ambersnail habitat to <10%, and stipulated that no additional planned high flows be conducted until at least one additional KAS population is discovered or established in Arizona. The Secretary's Record of Decision (ROD) is signed, formalizing the flow regime and adaptive management framework.
1997
GCES is replaced by the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center. Flows (27,000 cfs) above the ROD occurred in February/March, and again in mid-summer. The Adaptative Management Work Group (with the Technical Work Group) formally convened as a Federal Advisory Committee. An experimental Habitat Maintenance Flow was conducted in early November.
1998
BHBF flow triggering criteria formalized by AMWG; El Nino's predicted high snowpack failed to materialize; Lake Powell near full pool (3700') in July.
1999
Inflow and storage conditions in Lake Powell are insufficient to trigger a BHBF from January-June;Lake Powell near full pool (3700') in late June.

Top of Page


STUDY AREA

The Colorado River Ecosystem Affected by Glen Canyon Dam

Fig. IA1.1:

Fig. IA1.1: Map of the Colorado River ecosystem. Updated 7 December 1998.

Geography and Boundaries

The Colorado River ecosystem considered by the Secretary of the Interior's 1996 Record of Decision encompasses the mainstream river and its floodplain affected by Glen Canyon Dam, from Lake Powell to the western-most boundary of Grand Canyon National Park. In addition, the study area includes Lake Powell (for some characteristics), as well as some aspects of flow, sediment transport, biology and other aspects of some tributaries.

This is a large, dynamic desert river ecosystem, and is an essential water source for much of the Southwest. The Colorado River flows 473 km from Glen Canyon Dam (975 m elevation) to the Grand Wash Cliffs on upper Lake Mead (350 m elevation) through Sonoran and Mohave desert terrain, through lower Glen Canyon and all of Grand Canyon. By convention, locations along the Colorado River are designated in river miles from Lees Ferry. The river passes through 13 bedrock-defined geomorphic reaches, and the Paria (km 1) and Little Colorado (km 98) rivers create three turbidity segments (Schmidt and Graf 1990, Stevens et al. 1997b):

SegmentNameDistance(mi)Mean Width (ft)
1. CWGlen Canyon15.5-0.7518
2. VTPermian Gorge0.7-11.0280
3. VTSupai Gorge11.0- 22.5210
4. VTRedwall Gorge22.5- 40.0220
5. VTMarble Canyon40.0-61.5350
6. UTFurnace Flats61.5-77.5390
7. UTUpper Granite Gorge77.5- 117.9190
8. UTThe Aisles117.9- 125.5230
9. UTMuav Gorge125.5-139.9210
10. UTLower Canyon Reach139.9- 159.9180
11. UTLower Canyon Reach159.9- 213.8310
12. UTLower Granite Gorge213.8- 240.0240
13. UTUpper Lake Mead240.0278.0770

Table IA1.1: The bedrock- and landform-defined geomorphic reaches of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Distance (mi) is measured from Lees Ferry, Arizona which lies 15.5 mi downstream from Glen Canyon Dam. Turbidity segments include the clearwater (CW), variably turbid (VT) and usually turbid (UT) segments. Reach names have been modified from Schmidt and Graf (1990) and reach width (ft) was measured at a mainstream flow of 24,000 cfs by Schmidt and Graf (1990), and by Stevens (1997a) at a comparable flow for reaches 1 and a Lake Mead pool surface elevation of 1200'.

Unlike large unconstrained rivers with broad floodplains, the Colorado River in Glen and Grand canyons is confined by talus slopes and bedrock geology to a relatively narrow channel. Debris flows have reached the river at the mouths of more than 600 tributaries in this system, creating debris fan constrictions and eddies that control where sand and finer grain alluvial sediments can deposit, and dictating the location of sand deposits. Unlike the Mississippi River, sand bars in the Grand Canyon are geomorphically fixed and do not move. These debris fan-eddy complexes are distinctive, repeated geomorphic units separated by relatively uniform runs of channel. Sand deposits and debris fans support distinctive vegetation assemblages that, in turn, provide food and habitat for fish and wildlife. Thus, the Colorado River ecosystem is structured by geology and hydrology, and is a strongly "bottom-up" ecosystem.

Top of Page

AMWG/TWG (Hyperlink to BOR web pages)

Adaptive Management Work Group Vision/Mission Statement

(Pending approval by AMWG - 23 June 1999)

Stakeholder Goals

(Pending approval of Vision/Mission Statement - 23 June 1999)

Stakeholder Management Objectives

Resource CategoryShort NameInfo NeedMgt ObjOXMonitor or Resch Status
       
Ecosystem assessmentConceptual modelIN 1.1MO 1:714R
Aquatic foodbaseAquatic foodbase - monitorIN 1.1MO 1:109M
Aquatic foodbaseAquatic foodbase - dam FXIN 1.2MO 1:109R
Aquatic foodbaseAquatic foodbase for fishIN 1.3MO 1:1010R
TroutTrout population dynamicsIN 2.1MO 2:89R
TroutTrout population trendsIN 2.2MO 2:55M
TroutTrout condition #1IN 2.3MO 2:21M
TroutTrout spawning habitat availabilityIN 2.4MO 2:44R
TroutTrout condition #2IN 2.5MO 2:40M&R
TroutTrout maintenance RX#1IN 2.6MO 2:43R
TroutTrout/foodbase trophic dynamicsIN 2.7MO 2:34R
Native FishHBC population dynamicsIN 3/4.1MO 3/4:1010M&R
Native FishHBC recruitmentIN 3/4.2MO 3/4:118M&R
Native FishHBC winter survivalIN 3/4.3MO 3/4:108R
Native FishHBC intrxn with NN fishIN 3/4.4MO 3/4:20R&M
Native FishHBC habitat availabilityIN 3/4.5MO 3/4:106R
Native FishHBC protocol and recreation FXIN 3/4.6MO 3/4:21Protocol R
Native FishHBC trophic dynamicsIN 3/4.7MO 3/4:76R
Native FishHBC YOY habitat and NNS interxsIN 3/4.8MO 3/4:76R
Native FishHBC population loss to flowsIN 3/4.9MO 3/4:65R
Native FishHBC good year strategyIN 3/4.10MO 3/4:42Admin.
Native FishHBC downstream transportIN 3/4.11MO 3/4:63R
Native FishHBC flow-related takeIN 3/4.12MO 3/4:98R
Native FishHBC flow criteria to limit takeIN 3/4.13MO 3/4:87Admin.
Native FishThreatened fish - RPM test flowsIN 3/4.14MO 3/4:54R
Native FishNative fish - mainstream thermal modelIN 5.1MO 5:62R
Native FishNative fish - thermal mod FX#1IN 5.2MO 5:1010R
Native FishNative fish - thermal mod FX#2IN 5.3MO 5:1414R
Native FishThermal mod impacts on LP fishIN 5.4MO 5:72R
Native FishNN fish control - temperature and floodsIN 5.5MO 5:99R
Native FishHBC population mgt. criteriaIN 6.1MO 6:98R
Native FishHBC 2nd pop. feasibility studyIN 6.2MO 6:97R
Native FishRBS 2nd pop. feasibility studyIN 7.1MO 7:75R
Native FishNative fish pop. status IN 8.1MO 8:98M
Native FishNative fish pop. dynamics#1IN 8.2MO 8:74M
Native FishNative fish historic pop. dynamics #1IN 8.3MO 8:31M&R
Native FishNative fish historic pop. dynamics#2IN 8.4MO 8:52M&R
Native FishNative fish flow regime FXIN 8.5MO 8:74R
Native FishNative fish maintenance criteriaIN 8.6MO 8:74R
Native FishNative fish experimental flows design #1IN 9.1MO 9:32R
Native FishNative fish experimental flows design #2IN 9.2MO 9:51R
Native FishNative fish trib flows and recruitmentIN 9.3MO 9:73M&R
Native FishNative - NN fish nearshore intrxnsIN 9.4MO 9:61R
Native FishNative/NN fish intrxns #1IN 10.1MO 10:65R
Native FishNative/NN fish intrxns #2IN 10.2MO 10:43R
Native FishNative/NN fish mitigation intrxnsIN 10.3MO 10:33R
Native FishNN fish distrib. and natural historyIN 10.4MO 10:52M
Native FishNative/NN fish intrxns #3IN 10.5MO 10:62R
Native FishNative and NN fish autecologyIN 10.6MO 10:62M&R
RiparianAutecology of riparian speciesIN 11.1MO 11:99M&R
RiparianRiparian population variabilityIN 11.2MO 11:46M&R
RiparianRiparian SOC population changesIN 11.3MO 11:24M&R
RiparianRiparian species habitat distributionIN 11.4MO 11:57M&R
RiparianRiparian habitat mapIN 11.5MO 11:54R
RiparianMonitor leopard frogsIN 11.6MO 11:68R
RiparianFeasibility of 2nd leopard frog populationsIN 11.7MO 11:11Admin.
RiparianEvaluate amphibian sensitivityIN 11.8MO 11:23R
RiparianRiparian spp - dam FX on demography #1IN 12.1MO 12:68R
RiparianRiparian spp - rangesIN 12.2MO 12:11R
RiparianRiparian spp - age classesIN 12.3MO 12:00R
RiparianRiparian spp - dam FX on demography #2IN 12.4MO 12:22R
RiparianRiparian spp - general dam FXIN 12.5MO 12:11R&M
RiparianRiparian food webs: SOCIN 13.1MO 13:77R&M
RiparianRiparian food webs: birdsIN 13.2MO 13:68R
RiparianPefa - aerie distributionIN 13.3MO 13:11R&M
RiparianPefa - population dynamicsIN 13.4MO 13:22R
RiparianBald eagle - dam FXIN 13.5MO 13:33R&M
RiparianKAS - habitat RX #1IN 14.1MO 14:98M
RiparianKAS - special flow impactsIN 14.2MO 14:77R&M
RiparianKAS - habitat RX #2IN 14.3MO 14:88R&M
RiparianKAS - monitor exceptional flow impactsIN 14.4MO 14:77M
RiparianKAS - life history scheduleIN 14.5MO 14:77R&M
RiparianKAS - monitor #1IN 14.6MO 14:1110R&M
RiparianKAS - monitor #2IN 14.7MO 14:56M
RiparianKAS - genetic relationshipsIN 15.1MO 15:75R
RiparianKAS - habitat propagationIN 15.2MO 15:64R
RiparianRiparian veg - distribution: all #1IN 16.1MO 16:56M
RiparianRiparian veg - distribution: OHWIN 16.2MO 16:45R&M
RiparianRiparian veg - maintain and restoreIN 16.3MO 16:00M
RiparianRiparian veg - dam FXIN 16.4MO 16:44R&M
RiparianRiparian veg - life historiesIN 16.5MO 16:22R
RiparianRiparian veg - NNS and dam FXIN 16.6MO 16:45R&M
CulturalCultural sites - monitorIN 1.1MO 1:1213M
CulturalCultural sites - risk assessmentIN 1.2MO 1:64R
CulturalCultural sites - info needsIN 1.3MO 1:77Admin.
CulturalCultural sites - monitor risk IN 1.4MO 1:65R&M
CulturalCultural sites - preserve terraces #1IN 1.5MO 1:52M
CulturalCultural sites - preserve terraces #2IN 1.6MO 1:62R&M
CulturalCultural sites & recreation FXIN 1.7MO 1:10R
CulturalCultural sites - mitigation strategiesIN 2.1MO 2:99Admin.
CulturalCultural sites - data recovery strategiesIN 2.2MO 2:52Admin.
CulturalCultural sites - characterize dam FXIN 3.1MO 3:96R
CulturalCultural site data managementIN 4.1MO 4:75Admin.
SocioeconomicSocioeconomics - monitor hydropower $IN 1.1MO 1:  M
SocioeconomicSocioeconomics - costs of RODIN 1.2MO 1:  M
SocioeconomicSocioeconomics - research costsIN 1.3MO 1:  M
SocioeconomicSocioeconomics - integrated systems mgt.IN 1.4MO 1:  Admin.
WaterFlow - monitor releasesIN 1.1MO 1:  M
WaterFlow - monitor WQ and dam FX on major ionsIN 2.1MO 2:99M
WaterFlow - thermal modificationIN 2.2MO 2:66R&M
SedimentSediment - historic distribution & flow FX: all #1IN 1.1MO 1:57R&M
SedimentSediment - minimum storage for sustainabilityIN 1.2MO 1:911R
SedimentSediment - monitor flow FX by reachIN 1.3MO 1:710R
SedimentSediment - monitor inputs: allIN 1.4MO 1:810R&M
SedimentSediment - GCNRA bar distribution, sand inputIN 1.5MO 1:56R&M
SedimentSediment - bar & backwater distribution: '90-91IN 2.1MO 2:11M
SedimentSediment - establish baselines IN 2.2MO 2:32Admin.
SedimentSediment - monitor sand bar distribution #1IN 2.3MO 2:35R&M
SedimentCultural - monitor terracesIN 2.4MO 2:23M
SedimentSediment - bar & backwater distribution: modelIN 2.5MO 2:33R&M
SedimentSediment - bar, backwater and camp distributionIN 2.6MO 2:68R&M
SedimentSediment - bar & backwater distributionIN 2.7MO 2:25R
SedimentFlow - spillway impacts on bed and benthosIN 2.8MO 2:11R&M
SedimentBackwater distribution: '90-91, 96-97 #1IN 3.1MO 3:43R
SedimentBackwater distribution: '90-91, 96-97 #2IN 3.2MO 3:32R
SedimentSediment - bar & backwater distribution #2IN 3.3MO 3:34R&M
SedimentSediment - linkage to biotaIN 3.4MO 3:78R
SedimentBackwater distribution: '90-91, 96-97 #3IN 3.5MO 3:23R
SedimentBackwater distribution: '90-91, 96-97 #4IN 4.1MO 4:66R&M
SedimentSediment - model dam FX on bars, backwatersIN 4.2MO 4:46Admin.
SedimentSediment - assess dam FX on bars, backwatersIN 4.3MO 4:55Admin.
SedimentSediment - monitor inputs: Marble CanyonIN NH1.MO 4:33R&M
SedimentSediment - GCNRA high terrace erosion #1IN NH2.MO 4:11R
SedimentSediment - monitor inputs: GCNRAIN NH3.MO 4:22R
SedimentSediment - GCNRA high terrace erosion #2IN NH4.MO 4:21R&M
SedimentSediment - GCNRA bed morphology dynamicsIN NH5.MO 4:24R
SedimentSediment - GCNRA grain size distributionIN NH6.MO 4:11R
SedimentSediment - historic distribution & flow FX: GCNRAIN NH7.MO 4:02R&M
SedimentSediment - historic distribution & flow FX: all #2IN NH8.MO 4:23R&M
GISGIS - map topography, geology, soilsIN 1.1MO 1:11R
GISGIS - data archival and storageIN 1.2MO 1:02Admin.
RecreationRecreation - experienceIN 1.1MO 1:49R&M
RecreationRecreation - monitoring and research impactsIN 1.2MO 1:25R
RecreationRecreation - mitigate negative flow FXIN 1.3MO 1:410Admin.
RecreationRecreation - angler satisfaction, use and harvestIN 1.4MO 1:23R&M
RecreationWater - heavy metal impacts on fishIN 1.5MO 1:00R
RecreationRecreation - camp distribution,carrying capacityIN 2.1MO 2:110R&M
RecreationRecreation - dam FX on camp distributionIN 2.2MO 2:68Admin.
RecreationRecreation - develop campsite monitoring strategyIN 2.3MO 2:13Admin.
RecreationRecreation - model flow FX on campsitesIN 2.4MO 2:22R
RecreationRecreation safety - boating: GCNRAIN 3.1MO 3:13R&M
RecreationRecreation safety - boating: allIN 3.2MO 3:33R&M
RecreationRecreation safety - boating: Grand CanyonIN 3.3MO 3:21R&M
RecreationEcosystem Assessment - FX of flows for safety on ecosystemIN 3.4MO 3:10Admin.
RecreationRecreation - Resource conflicts with day raftingIN 3.5MO 3:21Admin.
RecreationTrout - flows RX for 100k troutIN 4.1MO 4:27R
RecreationWaterfowl - hunter use, satisfaction, conflicts IN 5.1MO 5:12R
Lake PowellWater - Lake Powell WQIN 1.1 (Phys)MO 1:1014R&M
Lake PowellWater - dam FX on Lake Powell WQ &productivityIN 1.1 (Biol)MO 1:512R
Lake PowellWater - Lake Powell, selenium impacts #1IN 1.2MO 1:10R
Lake PowellWater - water temperature impacts in Lake PowellIN 2.1MO 2:19R
Lake PowellLake Powell - dam FX on surface flux impactsIN 2.2MO 2:01R&M
Lake PowellWater - Lake Powell, selenium impacts #2IN 2.3MO 2:00R
Lake PowellLake Powell - dam FX on advective flowIN 2.4MO 2:01R&M
Lake PowellLake Powell - fish: dam FX on pred-prey rels.IN 2.5MO 2:11R
Lake PowellLake Powell - fish: dam FX on movementIN 2.6MO 2:15R
Aquatic foodbaseFisheries - habitat distribution: mainstream+ tribsIN 1.7 (App.)MO 1:13R
Aquatic foodbaseGIS - aquatic habitat map by stageIN 1.8 (App.)MO 1:11R
Aquatic foodbaseFisheries - dam FX on habitat distributionIN 1.9 (App.)MO 1:24R
Aquatic foodbaseAquatic foodbase - exposure FXIN 1.10 (App.)MO 1:23R
Aquatic foodbaseAquatic foodbase - dam FX on hyporheic comms.IN 1.11 (App.)MO 1:00R
Aquatic foodbaseWater - selenium impacts on benthos/hyporheicIN 1.12 (App.)MO 1:10R
Native fishFMS spawning hab. distrib. #1: recruitmentIN 1. (App.)MO 8:31R&M
Native fishFMS adult originsIN 2. (App.)MO 8:22R&M
Native fishFMS spawning hab. distrib. #2: Glen CanyonIN 3. (App.)MO 8:31R&M
Native fishFMS mechanisms of spawning failureIN 4. (App.)MO 8:21R
Native fishNative fish - FMS dam FX on recruitmentIN 5. (App.)MO 8:32R
Native fishNative fish - spawning and trib. MouthsIN 6. (App.)MO 8:21R&M
Native fishAquatic foodbase - dam FX on distributionIN 7. (App.)MO 8:00R&M
Native fishNative fish - FMS habitat RXIN 8. (App.)MO 8:10R
Native fishNative fish - FMS spawning hab. distrib. #3: site fidelityIN 9. (App.)MO 8:10R&M
Native fishNative fish - MS spawning hab. Distrib. #4: historic useIN 10. (App.)MO 8:00R&M
Native fishNative fish - FMS population modelIN 11. (App.)MO 8:21R
Native fishNative fish - FMS habitat modification RXIN 12. (App.)MO 8:10Admin.
Native fishNative/NN fish intrxns #4IN 13. (App.)MO 8:20R
Native fishWater - selenium FX on native fishIN 14. (App.)MO 8:00R

Table IA 1.1: AMWG stakeholder management objectives (revised June 1998). These management objectives (MO's) and information needs (IN's) were prioritized: "O" category represented a general vote on the importance of the category, with a maximum score of 14; "X" category represented a ranking vote within a resource topic of individual IN or MO importance. The status of IN's and MO's were categorized by GCMRC as being monitoring, research, protocol assessment, or administrative in nature.

Top of Page

GCMRC

Conceptual model development

Protocol and Remote Sensing Review

Hydrologic and Resource Triggering Criteria for High Flow Events

Physical Criteria for Triggering High Releases

An Analysis of the Monthly Release Volumes

Temporally Adjacent to a Beach Habitat Building Flow

Triggered by the Recently Developed Triggering Criteria

Updated by Randall Peterson on February 10, 1998

Background

When the 1996 Annual Operating Plan was issued containing the agreement between the Secretary of the Interior and the Basin States regarding Beach/Habitat Building Flows (BHBF=s), there were some concerns about the magnitude of monthly release volumes during other months in years when BHBF=s would occur. The greatest concern focused on potential sediment transport and the erosion of beach deposits, particularly if flows in the months following a BHBF were near powerplant capacity (~33,200 cfs).

During the last few months, as the triggering criteria were developed to completely define the 1996 agreement, all parties involved attempted to define criteria that reflected a reasonable risk or certainty that a spill would occur later in the spring. Under this criteria, when the reservoir was at its target storage level of 21.5 MAF on January 1 there is about a 1 in 3 chance of a BHBF being triggered sometime between January and June. This report analyzes both the monthly releases expected to occur at the time such a BHBF was triggered and the monthly releases that actually occurred.

Expected Releases

In order to achieve a reasonable level of risk of a spring spill, the subgroup believed a BHBF would need to be triggered prior to the scheduling of maximum powerplant releases for the remainder of the runoff season, i.e., before a spring spill became an absolute certainty. With Reclamation=s monthly release scheduling philosophy, releases have been aggressively increased when there is a high potential for a spring spill. Therefore, if an inflow forecast were to indicate the potential for high releases to avoid spills, releases during the current month would likely be at 25,000 cfs or greater even though future months may only have 20,000 cfs scheduled. Such practice reflects this aggressive spill avoidance and results in the current frequency of actual spills every 1 in 10 years on average. Less aggressive release patterns would result in a greater frequency of uncontrolled spring spills. However, the desire to limit sediment transporting flows to less than 25,000 cfs moderates to some degree the desire to avoid spills in all situations.

When the BHBF subgroup worked to develop BHBF criteria, it modeled releases using a more moderate release philosophy, trying to keep the monthly release volumes less than 1.5 MAF until the risk of an uncontrolled spring spill became unreasonably large, but at the same time trying to avoid anticipated spills. Table 1 lists the 10 modeled years when BHBF=s would have been released, under the assumption of a January 1 Lake Powell storage content of 21.5 MAF. The boxed numbers are the month in which the BHBF would have occurred. The top half of Table 1 shows that the average monthly release volume from the time a BHBF was triggered though the month of July was expected to be 1.35 MAF (about 22,500 cfs) at the time a BHBF was triggered. If the extreme years of 1983 and 1984 and the high forecast error year of 1995 were excluded, the average monthly release was expected to be 1.30 MAF (about 21,700 cfs).

Actual Releases

The bottom half of Table 1 shows these actual releases for the 10 BHBF years modeled by the subteam. In 90 percent of these modeled cases the actual ex post facto release volumes during these BHBF years were greater than was expected when the BHBF occurred. This is likely a result of forecasting procedures that tend to underforecast high runoff years; therefore, BHBF years have a tendency to have higher than expected releases after the BHBF occurred. This is further validation that the triggering criteria recommended by the AMWG properly identifies a significant risk level of uncontrolled spills. Despite the fact that future releases are not expected to be at powerplant capacity when a BHBF occurred, subsequent actual releases are higher than expected as a result of increases in the forecasted spring runoff and an increased risk of uncontrolled spills.

From Table 1, the actual average monthly releases through July following BHBF=s were 1.64 MAF (about 27,300 cfs). Excluding the high flood and forecast error years of 1983, 1984, and 1995 the average is 1.46 MAF (about 24,300 cfs). Of the total months through July following a BHBF, 83 percent had release volumes greater than 1.2 MAF (about 20,000 cfs) and 46 percent had release volumes greater than 1.5 MAF (about 25,000 cfs).

Table 1

Table

Top of Page

Resource Criteria Triggering High Flows -- .pdf format (31.9 KB)

(B. Ralston, B. Gold, and R. Winfree).

Top of Page